Our Methane Blindspot

Methane is getting some attention as we learn new information on the severity of the problem of methane emissions in the oil and gas industry but it remains a distant second in the world's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, despite all of the good intentions (e.g. better monitoring via satellites, oil company promises, etc) methane emissions continue to rise. Sharon Wilson continues to document the root cause of the problem — oil and gas production — as she has been doing for decades. Her quote from earlier this year is spot on.

“The bottom line on this whole thing is it doesn’t matter how many thermographers we have, boots on the ground, satellites flying in the air, people with drones and airplanes and all the other technology, none of it matters if you don’t stop methane,” Wilson said. “None of it counts.”

We need to start doing the work that actually counts, which will require holding the oil and gas industry accountable. Let’s see how that is going. 

The International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO) tracks methane releases with the goal of quantifying the problem and alerting offenders so they will work to reduce the methane releases. The only problem with that is that it relies on oil and gas companies caring. They don’t. 

Since it launched a notification system in 2022, IMEO has told companies and governments about more than 1,100 giant methane clouds escaping from oil and gas facilities. Yet the number of releases that it’s verified have been halted “can be counted on two hands, maybe one,” Caltagirone said. “Action taken in response to the notifications is lower than we were expecting.

This is obvious as methane emissions from oil and gas continue to increase and it was expected, as Sharon and I explained earlier this year in Scientific American.  The oil and gas industry has access to the best methane satellite data and has for many years. That hasn’t stopped them from knowingly underreporting those emissions. A new investigation by Fieldnotes found documents that prove the industry knows what it is doing. 

“The leaked documents included a confidential survey of member companies showing that nine out of the 19 companies that responded had increased methane flaring between 2021 and 2023. Natural gas flaring is a longstanding but highly polluting industry disposal method. The survey also showed that the total amount of flaring across the companies increased by 20% from 2022 to 2023.”

Those are U.S. companies. They know what they are doing and that is a big reason why, as the IEA notes, the U.S. oil and gas methane emissions lead the world.

EIA

And what that looks like on the ground is not pretty. Here is a video from this week in the Permian of an unlit flare. 

All of this is happening while we know that addressing methane emissions is our “emergency brake” for the slowing the climate crisis.  Last week CarbonTracker released its Absolute Impact 2024 report and summed up the situation right on the title page, “Oil and gas companies’ emissions targets are not Paris-aligned – with methane a major blind spot.” 

So, there is a lot of talk about reducing methane emissions in the oil and gas industry but nothing is being done that is actually reducing methane emissions. 

US LNG Exports are a Climate Bomb

The U.S. continues to build out a massive LNG export industry.

“North America has become a major player in the global LNG market and according to the EIA, North American LNG export capacity is projected to rise from approximately 85 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to around 181 mtpa by 2028.”

LNG is liquefied methane. The process of producing and exporting LNG to be burned to produce power is worse for the climate than coal. Why? See the above video for one of the reasons. Permian gas is being sent to the Gulf to be exported as LNG and its being sold as a clean fuel. It isn’t. But it is hard to know that with the major media printing that lie from the industry and not informing their readers of the science. Like the Financial Times this week when it included this quote:

“We look forward to working with the incoming Trump administration to cement America’s role as the world’s leading supplier of clean liquefied natural gas,” said Michael Sabel, chief executive of Venture Global, a leading US LNG developer.

An industry executive says LNG is “clean” and the Financial Times just leaves it there as if it isn’t misinformation. When the history of climate denial is finally written, the rise of the LNG industry as a “clean” fuel will likely be viewed as one of the most egregious lies. 

And here is some signage from the COP. That is a lie. There is no such thing as sustainable natural gas.

These efforts to ignore the science are everywhere. The Biden administration is hard at work to do the same. Apparently a top priority before leaving office is to secure climate disaster. 

“President Joe Biden’s administration has asked the European Union to ensure liquefied natural gas shipments that meet U.S. methane regulations automatically comply with Europe’s standards for imports, according to a letter seen by Reuters.”

They know U.S. LNG is dirty. They don’t care. And now they are trying to pressure the EU to change the rules to accept dirty U.S. LNG.

Here is a video of methane emissions at Venture Global’s CP1 LNG export facility. It is their CEO telling the Financial Times that LNG is clean.

LNG Tanker Fleet to be Bigger than Oil Fleet

We know we must reduce methane emissions fast. We know U.S. methane production has very high emissions. If the U.S. plans for LNG come to fruition, we have little hope of addressing climate change. However, the U.S. has plenty of help from countries like Japan in its efforts to get the world hooked on LNG. This week IEEFA released a report on how Japan is financing LNG production in the US so they can sell it to the rest of the world.

“Japan is also the largest public financier of gas and LNG projects around the world, despite a G7 commitment to phase out financial support for overseas fossil fuel projects.”

So what will happen if these plans come to fruition?

Source: Energy Monitor 

If all of those tankers get used to move LNG around the world for the next 3-4 decades we can expect a much warmer world. Unpleasantly so. 

Good News - LNG is Expensive

While it is clear we can not rely on politicians to follow the science when they can take the money instead, the science and the money do not favor LNG in the future. It’s a dirty fuel. But we know many politicians don’t care about that. However, it is also expensive and the prices are highly volatile. Renewable energy beats LNG on price. And provides countries with energy security as they don’t have to rely on the volatile LNG market. Will China go big on LNG?  This recent article points out some hurdles to that. Mostly it’s the economics.

“the power generated from imported LNG is estimated to be roughly $30-$40 more expensive per megawatt hour than that produced using coal, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA)” and “gas prices remain elevated compared to power produced from coal and renewables”

One interesting example of how LNG isn’t a good choice for many countries is Pakistan. Pakistan contracted for LNG deliveries but then when global prices went up, the people who agreed to sell Pakistan that LNG decided to sell it for more money to other buyers. Real immoral stuff but that is how the oil and gas industry operates. Pakistan is currently experiencing a solar boom. Much better option than dealing with the gangster LNG traders. The clean energy transition is taking off around the globe because clean energy is cheap energy. It is likely that the severity of future climate impacts will hinge in large part on how quickly renewables replace planned LNG expansions. The good news is the economics will only get worse for LNG. 

The science and the economics are clear. LNG is a bad choice for the planet. It is an expensive choice for power generation. However, the media and politicians are doing the work for the oil and gas industry to sell the world on the idea that US LNG is a climate solution. Sustainable! Carbon neutral! Certified!

Here is an example of the problem from a recent article by CBS.

“Many large oil and gas companies already meet or exceed methane-performance levels set by Congress under the climate law, meaning they are unlikely to be forced to pay the new fee, [EPA Administrator] Regan and other officials said.”

They are claiming that the big oil companies already meet or exceed methane regulations. This is ridiculous. It’s too bad Regan never took a tour of the U.S. oilfields with Sharon Wilson. He would see plenty of sites owned by major oil companies just pumping methane into the atmosphere.  This week we learned Exxon is paying a fine for methane emissions in Pennsylvania. Below is a recent video of a perfectly legal “blowdown” from equipment owned by Energy Transfer, a company with a current market capitalization of $64 billion. Pretty major.  

The expansion of the global LNG industry is being sold as inevitable. However, remember when Trump was going to bring back the coal industry?  The economic realities of producing electricity shut that down. The economics of producing electricity with LNG are even worse.  We’ve got that on our side. Let’s use it while we still have time. If you are facing an emergency and you have an emergency brake, it is wise to use it.